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| Solar Changes and the Climate AR4 ANALYSIS SERIES |
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| Written by Joe D’Aleo, Ian D. Clark, Richard Willson, Olavi Kärner | |||||
| Thursday, 19 July 2007 | |||||
Page 3 of 3
6. Long time scales
The
review in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report of million-year timescale climate
change also overlooks the work of Veizer et al. (2000), showing greenhouse
periods were asynchronous with high CO2 as modeled by Berner and
Kothavala (2001). This research was undertaken independently of, but almost simultaneously
with research by Shaviv (2002), who demonstrated a variable flux of cosmic rays
impinging on our solar system. The intensity of this cosmic ray flux, which
originates from supernovae, follows the 140 million year cycle of our solar
system’s migration through the spiral arms of the Milky Way galaxy. These
independent reconstructions show that climate over the past 600 million years
is highly synchronous with cosmic radiation. As proposed for modern climate
variability, the mechanistic connection between these records is that of
ionization and cloud nucleation in the atmosphere, leading to an increase in
cloudiness. However, on these long time scales of the Phanerozoic, high
frequency variability in solar activity and attenuation of cosmic radiation is
negligible. The impact of cloudiness on both long and short term climate cycles
is significant. Change in cloudiness of only a few percent can engender,
through changes in albedo, a climatic forcing greater than the entire
IPCC-proposed anthropogenic greenhouse effect. Further, cloudiness is
recognized by the IPCC AR4 as one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in
climate modeling.
Figure 6. The cosmic ray flux (upper diagram) and tropical ocean temperature anomaly variations over the past 500 million years (Shaviv and Veizer, 2003). Upper curve based meteorite exposure ages (Shaviv, 2002), lower curves shows fit of cosmic rays with temperature anomaly reconstruction (Veizer et al., 2000). References: Baldwin, M.P., Dunkerton, T.J.. (2004). The solar cycle and stratospheric-tropospheric dynamical coupling, JAS 2004 incomplete Baliunas, S., and R. Jastrow, (1990). Evidence for long-term brightness changes of solar-type stars. Nature, 348, 520-522. Berner, R.A. and Z. Kothavala (2001). “GEOCARB III. A Revised model of atmospheric CO2 over Phanerozoic time.” American Journal of Science , 301, 182—204. Bucha, V.,and Bucha, V. Jr (1998). Geomagnetic forcing of changes in climate and the atmospheric circulation, J. Atmos. Terr. Phys. 60, 145-169 Bucha, V. (1976). Variations of the geomagnetic field ,the climate and weather, Studies of Geophy. 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Authors: Joe D’Aleo, Certified Consulting Meteorologist. Olavi Kärner, Senior Research Associate, Tartü Observatory, Estonia Richard Willson, Principal Investigator, ACRIM Experiments, Columbia University Ian D. Clark, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa
Robert Ferguson, President This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it 209 Pennsylvania Ave., SE Suite 299 Washington, D.C 20003 www.scienceandpublicpolicy.org (202) 288-5699 *Views here expressed are those of the author, and not necessarily those of SPPI.
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