The CAPE’s review of the evidence clearly shows an extended Arctic warm period lasting at least 2,000 years during which time glacier and sea ice was much reduced and the limits of the great boreal forests were pushed much further northward, to the shores of the Arctic Ocean. The Arctic environment was a substantially different place than we know it today. Yet, despite these major environmental changes, polar bears managed to adapt and survive.

C. Polar Bears Today

Despite claims by activists, it is generally believed that the global population of polar bears is increasing, from 5,000 in the 1940s via 10,000 to 15,000 in the mid-1970s to 20,000 to 25,000 today. Much of this increase has been credited to stricter hunting regulations. However, it is critical to note that the increase also occurred during a time of warming temperatures in the Arctic—proof that polar bears can flourish in a changing (warming) environment. A recent survey of polar bear populations across Canada (home to about 2/3rds of the world’s polar bears) found that of the 13 distinct populations there, only two are documented to be in decline while some others are strongly increasing. For instance, polar bear biologist Mitch Taylor has documented an increase in the population of bears that are found in the Davis straight region of eastern Canada from approximately 850 individuals in the mid-1980s to about 2,100 now. “There aren’t just a few more bears. There are a ... lot more bears,” Dr. Taylor told the Christian Science monitor in a May 2007 article (http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0503/p13s01-wogi.html?page=1). University of Alberta scientist Andrew Derocher counters that the population of bears in the western Hudson’s Bay region has at the same time dropped by 22%, falling from 1,194 in 1987 to 935 in 2004. “They are declining due to global warming and changes in when the ice freezes and melts in Hudson Bay,” said Derocher. But this conclusion was recently challenged in the scientific literature by a team led by Nunavat government scientist M.G. Dyck. In a viewpoint article published in the journal Ecological Complexities entitled “Polar bears of western Hudson Bay and climate change: Are warming spring air temperatures the ‘ultimate’ survival control factor?” Dyck and colleagues summarize:

Long-term warming of late spring (April–June) air temperatures has been proposed by Stirling et al. (1999) as the ‘‘ultimate’’ factor causing earlier sea-ice break-up around western Hudson Bay (WH) that has, in turn, led to the poorer physical and reproductive characteristics of polar bears occupying this region. Derocher et al. (2004) expanded the discussion to the whole circumpolar Arctic and concluded that polar bears will unlikely survive as a species should the computer-predicted scenarios for total disappearance of sea-ice in the Arctic come true. We found that spring air temperatures around the Hudson Bay basin for the past 70 years (1932–2002) show no significant warming trend and are more likely identified with the large-amplitude, natural climatic variability that is characteristic of the Arctic. Any role of external forcing by anthropogenic greenhouse gases remains difficult to identify. We argue, therefore, that the extrapolation of polar bear disappearance is highly premature. Climate models are simply not skilful for the projection of regional sea-ice changes in Hudson Bay or the whole Arctic. Alternative factors, such as increased human–bear interaction, must be taken into account in a more realistic study and explanation of the population ecology of WH polar bears. Both scientific papers and public discussion that continue to fail to recognize the inherent complexity in the adaptive interaction of polar bears with both human and nature will not likely offer any useful, science-based, preservation and management strategies for the species.

D. Summary

So, the next time that you see Al Gore’s photo collection of decaying glaciers and animations of polar bears drowning as the distance between icebergs and the shore is too far to swim, or desperate pleas from environmental organizations with ulterior motives to declare the polar bear as “threatened” under the Endangered Species Act, think of the conditions during the early Holocene and during the last interglacial period—natural periods in Earth’s history when the conditions in the Arctic were much milder than those of today. In fact, during the majority of the past 9,000 years, the climate of large portions of the Arctic was likely warmer and less icy than it is currently. Further, consider that during the last several decades of Arctic warming, worldwide polar bear numbers have increase by some 50% or more. And finally, remember that today’s very existence of the polar bear is the strongest evidence available that these creatures are extremely adaptable to large-scale variations in their natural climate and habitat. These are facts that climate alarmists don’t want you know.

References:

CAPE Project Members, 2006. Last interglacial Arctic warmth confirms polar
amplification of climate change. Quaternary Science Reviews, 25, 1383-1400.

Dyck, M. G. et al., 2007. Polar bears of western Hudson Bay and climate change: Are warming spring air temperatures the “ultimate” survival control factor? Ecological Complexities, in press.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007. Fourth Assessment Report. Chapter 6, Paleoclimate.