What was done
The authors developed a 777-year-long annually-resolved record of landfalling
tropical cyclones in northeast Australia
based on analyses of isotope records of tropical cyclone rainfall in an
annually-layered carbonate stalagmite from Chillagoe (17.2°S, 144.6°E) in
northeast Queensland.
What was learned
Perhaps the most important discovery of Nott et
al.'s investigation was the finding that "the period between
AD 1600 to 1800" - when the Little Ice Age held sway throughout the world
- "had many more intense or hazardous cyclones impacting the site than the
post AD 1800 period," when the planet gradually recovered from this cold
interlude and began to warm at a rate that rose to ultimately become what
climate alarmists typically characterize as unprecedented
over the past millennium or more, and when temperatures rose to a
level they claim was equally unprecedented.
What it means
The four researchers write that "the only way to determine the likely
future behavior of tropical cyclones is to first understand their history from
high resolution records of multi-century length or greater." Based on (1)
this obvious truth, (2) their specific findings, and (3) the similar findings
of Donnelly
and Woodruff (2007) and Nyberg
et al. (2007) in the
Northern Hemisphere, it would appear that global warming at the very least will not lead to an
increase in the frequency of occurrence of intense hurricanes over wide reaches
of the globe, contrary to what climate alarmists such as Al Gore vociferously
contend.
References
Donnelly, J.P. and Woodruff, J.D. 2007. Intense hurricane activity over the
past 5,000 years controlled by El Niño and the West African Monsoon. Nature 447: 465-468.
Nyberg, J., Malmgren, B.A.,
Winter, A., Jury, M.R., Kilbourne, K.H. and Quinn, T.M. 2007. Low Atlantic
hurricane activity in the 1970s and 1980s compared to the past 270 years. Nature 447: 698-701.
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