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| NASA’s Hansen Playing Enron Accounting Games With Climate Data? |
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| Written by Noel Sheppard | |
| Sunday, 16 September 2007 | |
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Since NASA's James Hansen
finally released
computer codes related to how climate data are collected and adjusted,
anthropogenic global warming skeptics around the world have been waiting to see
what a scientific examination of this information would produce.
On Monday, Canada's Steve
McIntyre, who himself debunked Michael Mann's ridiculous "Hockey
Stick" theory as well as identified Hansen's
Y2K bug, released information identifying that Hansen recently made
additional changes to climate data akin to how companies like Enron used
creative accounting to exaggerate earnings and defraud investors.
As published at Climate Audit
moments ago (emphasis added, h/t Anthony
Watts):
Shortly after, NASA
published their source code on Sept 7, we started noticing puzzling
discrepancies in the new data set.
[...]
On Sept 15, Jerry
Brennan observed that the
NASA
By this time, we'd figured
out exactly what Hansen had done: they'd switched from using the SHAP
version - which had been what they'd used for the past decade or so - to the
FILNET version. The impact at Detroit Lakes was relatively large - which
was why we'd noticed it, but in the network as a whole the impact of the change
was to increase the trend slightly - enough obviously to make a difference
between 1934 and 1998 - even though this supposedly was of no interest to
anyone.
In very simplistic terms,
SHAP and FILNET are computer programs used by climatologists to assist in the
collation and interpretation of climate data. Each program does so differently,
and, therefore, yields different final results.
As such, by suddenly
switching from SHAP - which NASA had been using for decades - to FILNET, NASA
was able to once again claim that 1998 and 1934 are now tied for the warmest
years on record in the
As McIntyre pointed out,
what's now happening at NASA is akin to companies changing from Generally
Accepting Accounting Principles (GAAP) to what produced a lot of faulty
earnings in the late '90s and early '00s, Earnings Before Income, Taxes,
Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA):
Now you may say that
this is "science" and accounting principles don't apply. And my response would be that
I'd expect GAAP principles to be a minimum standard for the type of climate
statistics being carried out by NASA. Even if NASA climate statisticians
are unaware of GAAP per se, they should be adhering to the principles. Sharp
practice is sharp practice, however it is gussied up.
Furthermore, what is doubly
concerning is the idea that Hansen can just change formats whenever he wants to
suit his agenda:
Companies cannot change
accounting procedures on a whim. Auditors will not permit companies to change methods merely
to enhance reported earnings. And if a company changed accounting
procedures without any disclosure, it would be viewed very seriously by
regulatory agencies - whether or not the company said that it
"mattered". If the change from SHAP to FILNET accounting didn't
"matter", then Hansen shouldn't have done it. If it did matter, he
still shouldn't have done it right now just when he was archiving source code
for the first time - and to do so without either formal disclosure or a
re-statement of prior results simply boggles the imagination.
Of course, when Enron and
other companies were found to be cooking their books at the expense of
investors, this was front page, headline news for months.
Do you think these
revelations by McIntyre will be reported by media any time soon?
While you ponder, Surface
Stations' Anthony Watts accurately depicted
the gravity of this issue that somehow will elude press outlets coast to coast
(emphasis added, thanks to NBer dscott for reminding me):
My first indication that
something changed came from surfacestations.org volunteer Chris Dunn who wrote
to me complaining that one of the sites
he'd recently surveyed, Walhalla, SC had been greatly adjusted at GISS for no
good reason that he could ascertain, since the site is pristine by climate
monitoring standards, and has not gone through any significant changes in the
past, and has been operated at the same location (by the same family) since
1916. He wondered why NASA would have to adjust the data for a "good"
station. The way I view it, shouldn't good data stand on it's
own? That was September 7th. He was using data from NASA GISS published on
8/28.
So he continued to look at
the data, and the site. The [sic] on Sept 11th he noticed a change when he
downloaded the data again. Something
had changed, the data was different. Not only the adjusted data but the
"raw" data too.
Whether this was accidental
or intentional I cannot say, but it certainly does not look good coming on
the heels of NASA GISS's most recent issue of a mistake causing a revision of
our temperature history on August 8th. We deserve better accounting than
this when so much hinges on this data.
I agree, Anthony.
Unfortunately, it appears that only people who read conservative blogs are
going to find out about this, because it is a metaphysical certitude major
media outlets will ignore this issue.
How disgraceful. —Noel Sheppard is an economist, business owner, and Associate Editor of NewsBusters. |
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