[Illustrations, footnotes and references available in PDF version]
In late January 2009, the once-respected “science” journal Nature published the results of a computer model apparently showing that nearly all of the Antarctic continent had not cooled over the past 50 years, as the real-world observational data showed, but had warmed instead. The newly-created “warming” was achieved not by direct observation, which has long produced inconvenient cooling, but by “statistical climate-field-reconstruction techniques to obtain a 50-year-long, spatially complete estimate of monthly Antarctic temperature anomalies.”
The authors used “the special covariance structure of the surface temperature field to guide interpolation of the … records of … temperature from occupied weather stations,” on the ground that, “although it has been suggested that such interpolation is unreliable owing to the distances involved, large spatial scales are not inherently problematic if there is high spatial coherence, as is the case in continental Antarctica.”
The “reconstructions” were said to “demonstrate” warming of 0.17 °C/decade over the past 50 years in West Antarctica, 0.10 in East Antarctica and 0.12 continent-wide; however, their own analysis, when tested against detrended data, found that the continent-wide warming was not demonstrably different from zero.
The international alarmist movement swung swiftly and expensively into action, actively supported by the more scientifically-illiterate news media, to say that the “warming” of Antarctica, illustrated in the widely-reproduced “before-and-after” images above, “proved” that “global warming” was truly global after all. The usual solemn warnings about the need for urgent and costly action to close down the economies of the West were added.
For full paper, see pdf.