Zonal mean equilibrium temperature change (°C) at CO2 doubling (2x CO2 – control), as a function of latitude and pressure (hPa) for 4 general-circulation models. All show the projected fingerprint of anthropogenic greenhouse-gas warming: the tropical mid-troposphere “hot-spot” is projected to warm at twice or even thrice the surface rate. Source: Lee et al. (2007).

Red flag 25: Four of the UN’s computer models, shown above, predict the “hot-spot’s” presence. However, the model-predicted tropical upper-troposphere “hot-spot” does not exist, as Figure 8 shows. It has not been observed in 50 years of radiosonde and drop-sonde measurements. It has not been observed in 30 years of satellite observations. It has not been observed at all. It is not there (HadAT, 2006) –

The absent fingerprint of anthropogenic greenhouse warming
 
Altitude-vs.-latitude plot of observed relative warming rates in the satellite era. The greater rate of warming in the tropical mid-troposphere that is projected by general-circulation models is absent in this and all other observational datasets, whether satellite or radiosonde. Altitude units are hPa (left) and km (right). Source: Hadley Centre for Forecasting (HadAT, 2006).

In a lecture given in 2008, Professor Lindzen concluded from the absence of the “hot-spot” that –

“... A doubling of CO2 leads to surface warming of from about 1.5-3.5 C. By contrast, the observed warming over the past century or so amounts to only about 0.6-0.8 C (not all of which need be due to increased greenhouse gases). ... Using basic theory, modeling results and observations, we can reasonably bound the anthropogenic contributions to surface warming since 1979 to a third of the observed warming, leading to a climate sensitivity too small to offer any significant measure of alarm ...”.

Red flag 26: In short, the absence of the model-predicted “hot-spot” requires us to divide the UN’s climate-sensitivity estimates by at least 3. Lindzen’s result is in line with that of Scafetta & West (2008), who attribute more than two-thirds of the past half-century’s “global warming” to the Sun.

Red flag 27: The UN does not consider solar changes to be significant, and has recently reduced its estimate of the solar forcing since 1750. However, it has long been established that a strong and inferentially causative link between variations in sunspot activity and in surface temperature exists.

For instance, it is well known that, during the 70-year Maunder Minimum or Grand Minimum from 1645 to 1715, during which there were fewer sunspots than at any previous period in the past 10,000 years (Hathaway, 2004), the rivers Thames and Hudson regularly froze over for long periods during the winter. Often the freezing was sufficiently intense to allow frost-fairs to be held on the ice. The UN’s value for the solar radiative forcing, however, is so low that its reports are unable to provide any explanation of the intense cold that obtained during the Grand Minimum.

From the Maunder Minimum to the 70-year Grand Maximum from 1925 to 1995, during which there was more solar activity than at almost any previous period in the past 11,400 years (Solanki et al., 2005), solar activity as measured by the number of sunspots visible during the maximum of each 11-year solar cycle showed a steady increase –

From Grand Minimum to Grand Maximum, solar activity has increased
 
It’s the Sun, stupid! As solar activity increased over the past 300 years from the 10,000-year low of the Grand Minimum to the 11,400-year high of the Grand Maximum that ended with the 20th century, global temperatures also increased by 0.5-0.7 Cº/century (Akasofu, 2008, private communication). During the decades following the peak of the solar Grand Maximum, warming was also observed on Mars, on Jupiter, on Neptune’s largest moon, and even on distant Pluto. Diagram source: Hathaway, 2004, with the author’s added indication of the Grand Maximum.

Red flag 28: The Planck parameter: The UN also exaggerates the Planck parameter by at least one-third, because it incorrectly takes temperature and radiant-energy values from planetary emitting surfaces six miles apart, effectively repealing the fundamental equation of radiative transfer. Also, the UN fails to make any allowance for diurnal and latitudinal variations, which, according to a private communication from Dr. David Evans, require a further 10% reduction in the value of the Planck parameter.
 
Red flag 29: The temperature-feedback multiplier: Finally, the UN exaggerates the feedback multiplier. It assumes that feedbacks, which we explained earlier, amplify the original forcing more than threefold.  However, it underestimates the cooling effect of evaporation in calculating the water-vapour feedback (Wentz et al., 2007); it fails to notice that relative humidity in the upper troposphere is low, greatly reducing the water-vapour feedback and possibly rendering it negative (Paltridge et al., 2009), and it regards the cloud feedback as strongly positive when it should be net-negative (Spencer, 2007). These three considerations alone suggest that the UN has at least doubled the true value of the feedback multiplier. If the UN’s stated maximum values for temperature feedbacks were right, the Earth would suffer from a “runaway greenhouse effect” that has self-evidently not occurred.

Red flag 30: Correcting for the UN’s exaggerations of each of the four key parameters reduces climate sensitivity from 3.26 C to little more than 0.25 C by 2100, and near-certainly less than 1 C (Chylek, 2008; Lindzen, 2007; Monckton, 2008; Schwartz, 2007; etc., etc.). It is probably fair to say that the majority of the tiny fraction of papers on the climate that take the trouble to focus on this central question of climate sensitivity find it to be very substantially below the UN’s wide but prodigiously-exaggerated range of estimates.

The theoretical considerations that I have briefly outlined support the satellite observations indicating that the UN has very substantially overestimated the effect of anthropogenic CO2 enrichment on global mean surface temperature. For a more explicitly mathematical and physical treatment of climate sensitivity, see Monckton (2008).

I have now justified the three graphs that were displayed in my testimony before the Committee. I was also specifically asked to justify my assertion that the Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index has recently recorded its least value in the 30-year record, indicating not an increase but a decline in the combined frequency, duration, and intensity of hurricanes, typhoons, and tropical cyclones.

Are hurricanes, typhoons, and tropical cyclones declining?

The Committee asked Mr. Karl and me to comment on whether hurricanes were increasing or declining.

Red flag 31: Mr. Karl said that there had been an increase in the number of intense tropical storms in the Atlantic over the past 150 years. However, even if that had been the case, humankind cannot have been responsible for the warming that occurred during the first 120 of those 150 years. Furthermore, as I established supra, the rate of warming during the 23 years 1975-1998 (when “global warming” ceased) was exactly the same as the rate of warming during the 20 years 1860-1880 and the 30 years 1910-1940. During the earlier two periods, humankind could not have had any appreciable warming effect on the climate. Therefore, even if a mere warming were sufficient to engender more frequent or more intense hurricanes and other tropical storms, humankind has had very little to do with it.

My response to the Committee’s question was to cite the Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index, which is usually presented as a two-year running sum combining the frequency, duration, and intensity of all hurricanes, typhoons, and tropical cyclones around the globe. I am grateful to Ryan Maue of Florida State University for his recent graph demonstrating that the two-year running sum of the Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index is currently standing at its least value in a third of a century, indicating an exceptionally low level of hurricane and tropical storm activity –

Global tropical cyclone energy stands at its lowest for 33 years
 
Hurricanes hardly happen: The Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index is now at its least value in a third of a century, indicating that “global warming” over the same period has not led to the increase in hurricanes and other severe tropical storms that had been widely but baselessly predicted.

A forthcoming paper by Paul Maynard and me for the Journal of the Chartered Insurance Institute of London will show that insured financial losses attributable to hurricanes, when adjusted not only for inflation but also for the very substantial growth of the population and infrastructure in harm’s way, show – if anything – a falling trend throughout the 20th century.

Red Flag 32: During a break in the proceedings during which Congressmen were compelled to leave to attend to other business of the House, Mr. Karl told me he was surprised at my mentioning the Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index.

I responded that there had been no trend in the frequency of landfalling Atlantic hurricanes for at least a century, broadly confirming and extending the result demonstrated in Ryan Maue’s graph supra. Mr. Karl protested that this was not the case, and showed me a graph which plotted not only the frequency of landfalling Atlantic hurricanes over 150 years but also the frequency of severe Atlantic tropical storms.

I pointed out – and Mr. Karl was compelled to concede – that his own graph showed that, as I had said, there had indeed been no trend in the frequency of landfalling Atlantic hurricanes over the entire 150-year period of his graph.

Mr. Karl then said that, nevertheless, the number of intense Atlantic storms had increased markedly over the 150-year period. I pointed out that during the first 120 years there had been no satellites, so it had not been possible to count most of the Atlantic storms.

The data for landfalling hurricanes were reliable throughout the period because one did not need a satellite to discern whether the coastline had been struck by a hurricane.

Red flag 33: The following graphs – some based on data from the NCDC, of which Mr. Karl is the Director, demonstrate that, despite frequently-repeated claims that “global warming” has been making tropical storms more frequent or more intense, if anything the warmer weather has resulted in fewer and less intense storms, in part because the temperature differentials that cause storms diminish with warming –
No hurricane trend despite 100 years’ ‘global warming’
 
Source: Landsea (2007)

Fewer typhoons (top) and tropical cyclones (bottom)
 
Source: Ren et al. (2006)

No increase in high wind-speed or violent hurricanes
 
Source: Robinson, Robinson & Soon (2007)

Fewer severe tornadoes in the US
 
Source: NCDC Climate Review (2006)

Fewer deaths from tornadoes in the US
 
Source: NCDC Climate Review (2006)

The Committee’s further concerns about the impacts of “global warming”

During the hearing, I noted some of the principal concerns about the impacts of “global warming” that were raised by Hon. Members of the Committee. I shall address these concerns. First, it should be self-evident that if, as the theory suggests and the satellite data demonstrate, the amount of warming to be expected as a result of atmospheric CO2 enrichment is approximately an order of magnitude less than the UN’s models predict, none of the disasters, catastrophes, cataclysms, and Apocalypses luridly specified by Mr. Karl and imagined by some Hon. Members will come to pass.

Red flag 34: Schulte (2008), in a review of 539 papers published since January 2004 and containing the search term “global climate change” found that not one paper offered any evidence to the effect that “global warming” would prove to be “catastrophic” in any particular. That is the true scientific consensus. Yet the scientific-technological elite continues to tell politicians that catastrophe is just around the corner.

Chairman Markey said that “global warming” was “getting worse”. Since there has been global cooling for seven years, definitively established by all four of the principal global-temperature datasets both individually and collectively, that proposition is erroneous. Furthermore, though emissions of carbon dioxide are greater than the UN had predicted, the growth in CO2 concentration is well below the least of the UN’s projections.

Red flag 35: Chairman Markey also said that sea level would rise, and would in particular swamp the Maldives. However, in recent years the Maldives have been subjected to a more thorough sea-level analysis than almost anywhere else on Earth, by a talented multi-disciplinary team under Professor Nils-Axel Moerner, the world’s ranking expert on sea-level rise, who has written 520 peer-reviewed papers on the subject. The early conclusions of that continuing research, published in 2004, demonstrated that there had been no net sea-level rise in the Maldives for 1250 years. In any event, corals are capable of growing towards the light at ten times the most rapid rate of sea-level rise, which is why it is no mere coincidence that many coral atolls are only a few feet above sea level today, notwithstanding that sea level has risen by 400 feet over the past 10,000 years.