No Global Warming for Almost Two Decades Print E-mail
Written by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley   
Tuesday, 15 January 2013 09:32

The Science and Public Policy Institute has been asked to comment on the apparent inconsistency between the news that July 2012 was the warmest July since 1895 in the contiguous United States and the news that the Meteorological Office in the UK has cut its global warming forecast for the coming years. The present paper is a response to that interesting question.



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Droughts in South America Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Thursday, 03 January 2013 15:23

Based on model projections, climate alarmists contend that global warming should lead to both more frequent and more extreme weather phenomena, such as droughts and floods. It is important, therefore, to search for real-world evidence of these phenomena, especially over the past century when temperatures and CO2 concentrations rose to levels that climate alarmists claim are unprecedented over thousands of years (temperature) to millions of years (CO2 concentration). In the present summary, we thus examine what researchers have found in this regard for South America.



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Storm Trends Across the Globe Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Thursday, 03 January 2013 14:57

Among the highly publicized changes in weather phenomena that are predicted to attend the ongoing rise in the air's CO2 content and temperature are increases in the frequency and severity of all types of storms; and, therefore, in an effort to determine if these predictions have any validity, many researchers have examined pertinent historical and proxy weather records. Although most of these studies focus on storms trends for a given location or region, there have been a few of them that have attempted to examine the issue for the globe as a whole; and in this review we examine what those studies found.



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Rising Temperatures and Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic Basin Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Thursday, 03 January 2013 14:05

Climate alarmists continue to claim that rising temperatures lead to ever more intense Atlantic Basin hurricanes. But are they correct? We here review the results of a number of studies that are germane to this question.



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Expert Reviewer Comments on Second-Order Draft of WG1's Contribution to AR5 Print E-mail
Written by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley   
Thursday, 03 January 2013 00:00

Expert Reviewer’s Comments on the Second-Order Draft of the Contribution of the Climate Science Working Group (WG1) to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5, 2013) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.



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Sea Level is Not Rising Print E-mail
Written by Professor Nils-Axel Mörner   
Friday, 07 December 2012 10:31

Main points

  • - At most, global average sea level is rising at a rate equivalent to 2-3 inches per century. It is probably not rising at all.
  • - Sea level is measured both by tide gauges and, since 1992, by satellite altimetry. One of the keepers of the satellite record told Professor Mörner that the record had been interfered with to show sea level rising, because the raw data from the satellites showed no increase in global sea level at all.
  • - The raw data from the TOPEX/POSEIDON sea-level satellites, which operated from 1993-2000, shows a slight uptrend in sea level. However, after exclusion of the distorting effects of the Great El Niño Southern Oscillation of 1997/1998, a naturally-occurring event, the sea-level trend is zero.
  • - The GRACE gravitational-anomaly satellites are able to measure ocean mass, from which sea-level change can be directly calculated. The GRACE data show that sea level fell slightly from 2002-2007.
  • - These two distinct satellite systems, using very different measurement methods, produced raw data reaching identical conclusions: sea level is barely rising, if at all.
  • - Sea level is not rising at all in the Maldives, the Laccadives, Tuvalu, India, Bangladesh, French Guyana, Venice, Cuxhaven, Korsør, Saint Paul Island, Qatar, etc.
  • - In the Maldives, a group of Australian environmental scientists uprooted a 50-year-old tree by the shoreline, aiming to conceal the fact that its location indicated that sea level had not been rising. This is a further indication of political tampering with scientific evidence about sea level.
  • - Modelling is not a suitable method of determining global sea-level changes, since a proper evaluation depends upon detailed research in multiple locations with widely-differing characteristics. The true facts are to be found in nature itself.
  • - Since sea level is not rising, the chief ground of concern at the potential effects of anthropogenic “global warming” – that millions of shore-dwellers the world over may be displaced as the oceans expand – is baseless.
  • - We are facing a very grave, unethical “sea-level-gate”.


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Biospheric Productivity in Africa Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Thursday, 29 November 2012 11:29

Nearly three decades ago, Idso (1986) published a small item in Nature that advanced the idea that the aerial fertilization effect of the CO2 that is liberated by the burning of coal, gas and oil was destined to dramatically enhance the productivity of Earth's vegetation. In fact, in a book he had published four years earlier (Idso, 1982), he had predicted that "CO2 effects on both the managed and unmanaged biosphere will be overwhelmingly positive," if not "mind-boggling." And in a monograph based on a lecture he gave a few years later (Idso, 1995), he said that "we appear to be experiencing the initial stages of what could truly be called a rebirth of the biosphere, the beginnings of a biological rejuvenation that is without precedent in all of human history." Consequently, and in light of the fact that such a worldview is the exact opposite of the apocalyptic vision promoted by climate alarmists, it is instructive to see what others have discovered and published about the matter; and in this summary we report such information for the continent of Africa.



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Biospheric Productivity in Asia, Excluding China Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Thursday, 29 November 2012 00:00

Climate alarmists are continually warning the world about potentially-catastrophic negative consequences of CO2-induced global warming, which they contend will wreak havoc with Earth's natural and agro-ecosystems. In this summary we review how vegetative productivity has fared throughout various countries in Asia outside of China over the past few decades, when air temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations have risen to levels that climate alarmists claim are unprecedented over thousands (temperature) to millions (CO2 concentration) of years. For if these two factors are really as devastating as climate alarmists claim they are, we should surely see signs of their negative impacts on terrestrial vegetation over this crucial period of time. So what's been happening in this regard?



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The Unbalance Sheet Print E-mail
Written by John Brignell   
Thursday, 22 November 2012 13:22

The concept of the balance sheet is important to the provision of information over a wide range of human activities, particularly in science and finance.

The weasel words Off Balance Sheet have historically been used by shady businesses to hide items that represent hidden liabilities and risks[1]. They were a significant factor in the build up to the great financial crisis that still stalks the world economy. The technique is also used by politicians: notoriously, for example, by Britain’s New Labour Administration in the form of the Private Finance Initiative. The alarming scale of the liabilities only emerged after the departure from office of the instigator, Gordon Brown. It is still in use, however, in the form of stealth taxes: the outrageous cost of ineffectual wind-turbines and their deleterious effect on the National Grid, for example, is cynically loaded onto the energy bills to suffering customers and does not appear in the (allegedly now more open) taxation and expenditure figures. It is a cruel regressive tax that is responsible for a substantial and continuous increase in the miseries of real poverty.



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Droughts in Africa Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Wednesday, 14 November 2012 13:31

One of the many dangers of global warming, according to the world's climate alarmists, is the predicted propensity for rising temperatures to produce more frequent, more severe, and longer-lasting droughts almost everywhere on Earth. But just how realistic are the climate models upon which these claims are based? And what does real-world climatic history have to say about the subject? In this brief summary, we discuss the findings of several scientific papers that broach these questions as they pertain to Africa.



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Nutrient Acquisition in a C02 Enriched World Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Wednesday, 31 October 2012 00:00

On a per-unit-biomass basis, Smart et al. (1998) noted there were no differences in the total amounts of nitrogen within CO2-enriched and ambiently-grown wheat seedlings after three weeks of exposure to atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 360 and 1,000 ppm. Nevertheless, the CO2-enriched seedlings exhibited greater rates of soil nitrate extraction than did the ambient-grown plants.



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Climate Predictability Print E-mail
Written by W.J.R. Alexander   
Friday, 26 October 2012 00:00

This well at Kom Umbu on the banks of the Nile River was built in Roman times. It was connected to the river. The relationship could be calculated between the number of steps inundated each year and the extent of the area that was inundated by beneficial flood water, and was therefore taxable,. This was the world’s first prediction model!

Today in some Western nations, taxes are levied to control greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere that are claimed to result in undesirable climate change.



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Interaction of C02 and Light on Plant Growth Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Thursday, 18 October 2012 11:39

Granados and Korner (2002)1 grew three tropical understory vines (Gonolobus cteniophorus, Ceratophytum tetragonolobum and Thinouia tomocarpa) for seven months in controlled environment chambers maintained at atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 280, 420, 560 and 700 ppm in combination with low and high light intensities to study the interactive effects of the two parameters on the vines' growth. On average, they found that plant biomass was 61% greater at high light than it was at low light. However, the greatest CO2-induced growth response in each species occurred in the low light environment. Increasing the atmospheric CO2 concentration from 280 to 420 ppm, for example, increased Gonolobus biomass by 86 and 32% in low and high light environments, respectively, Ceratophytum biomass by 249 and 24% in low and high light environments, respectively, and Thinouia biomass by 65% in low light, while it actually decreased plant biomass by 1% in the high light environment.



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Heavy Metal Soil Toxicity in a C02-Enriched World Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Thursday, 18 October 2012 11:33

Noting that copper (Cu) is "an essential micronutrient [that] plays a vital role in maintaining normal metabolism in higher plants," but that it "is toxic to plant cells at higher concentrations and causes the inhibition of plant growth or even death," Jia et al. (2007)1 grew a Japonica rice cultivar in control and Cu-contaminated soil for one full season at ambient and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (370 vs. 570 ppm), while measuring leaf Cu concentrations at the tillering, jointing, heading and ripening stages of the crop.



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Sea Ice: An Open Letter to Jeremy Paxman of the BBC Print E-mail
Written by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley   
Monday, 15 October 2012 13:27

Your Newsnight segment on Arctic sea ice (BBC2 TV, 8 September 2012) featured a “scientist” who said ice loss since a high point in 1979 would cut the Earth’s albedo and, by this feedback, cause warming equivalent to 20 years’ global CO2 emissions.

On the IPCC’s current central climate-sensitivity estimates, 20 years’ CO2 emissions would only warm the Earth by ¼ C°. But since the IPCC’s first projections in 1990, temperature has risen only half as fast as predicted: so make that just ? C°.

The glaciologist the programme relied on got the math wrong. Ignoring the growth in Antarctic sea ice since 1979, as the programme unwisely did, the loss of 2.5 million km2 of Arctic sea ice (measured as the linear trend on the NSIDC data) will warm the Earth by only 1/20 C°, and only then if the ice loss is permanent. Halve that to allow for the compensating effect of record Antarctic sea-ice growth: say, 1/40 C° of global warming, equivalent to just 2 years’ CO2 emissions on the IPCC’s current projections, not 20 years’ emissions. The math is below.



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Vegetative Storage Proteins: Response to Atmospheric C02 Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Thursday, 11 October 2012 08:55

In a paper published in Tree Physiology, Maier et al. (2008)[1] describe how a soil nitrogen fertilizer application affected upper-canopy needle morphology and gas exchange in approximately 20-meter-tall loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) trees previously exposed to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (200 ppm above ambient) for nine years at the Duke Forest FACE facility in Orange County, North Carolina, USA. This work revealed that during the tenth year of exposure to elevated CO2, there was a strong enhancement (greater than 50%) of light-saturated net photosynthesis across all age classes of needles, but that the stimulation was 28% greater in current-year foliage than in one-year-old foliage. In addition, they report that current-year foliage incorporated the added nitrogen into photosynthetic components that increased the photosynthetic capacity of the current-year foliage, but that the one-year-old foliage tended to simply store extra nitrogen, which subsequently served as "an important source of nitrogen for the development of current-year foliage" via "efficient retranslocation of nitrogen from senescing one-year-old foliage to developing foliage."



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Papers for Three Quarters of the Year Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Thursday, 04 October 2012 09:00

Catalog of SPPI papers for the first three quarters of 2012.



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Extreme Temperatures in Europe Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Wednesday, 03 October 2012 15:50

One of the projected negative consequences of global warming is a concomitant increase in climatic variability, including more frequent hot weather events. It is a relatively easy matter to either substantiate or refute such claims by examining trends in extreme temperatures over the past century or so; because if global warming has truly been occurring at an unprecedented rate over the past hundred years, as climate alarmists claim it has, temperature variability and extreme temperature events should be increasing, according to them. Therefore, this review investigates this issue as it pertains to locations in Europe.



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Effects of Elevated Carbon Dioxide on Soil Bacteria Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Wednesday, 03 October 2012 15:45

Nearly all of Earth's plant life responds favorably to increases in the air's CO2 content by exhibiting enhanced rates of photosynthesis and biomass production. Consequently, these phenomena tend to increase soil carbon contents by increasing root exudation of organic compounds and the amount of plant litter returned to the soil. Thus, one might expect CO2-mediated increases in soil carbon content to impact soil bacterial communities; and this summary explores the findings of several scientists who have studied the effects of elevated CO2 on bacteria.



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C02-Induced Starch Accumulation in Plants Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Thursday, 27 September 2012 12:50

It is therefore likely that rising atmospheric CO2 levels will significantly boost starch production in plants, thereby increasing the availability of an important raw material that can be metabolized to help sustain enhanced growth under a variety of stressful situations.



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