Solar and Planetary Oscillation, Control on Climate Change: Hind-cast, Forecast and a Comparison of the CMIP5 GCMs Print E-mail
Written by Nicola Scafetta   
Wednesday, 17 July 2013 21:36

ABSTRACT Global surface temperature records (e.g. HadCRUT4) since 1850 are characterized by climatic oscillations synchronous with specific solar, planetary and lunar harmonics superimposed on a background warming modulation. The latter is related to a long millennial solar oscillation and to changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere (e.g. aerosol and greenhouse gases). However, current general circulation climate models, e.g. the CMIP5 GCMs, to be used in the AR5 IPCC Report in 2013, fail to reconstruct the observed climatic oscillations. As an alternate, an empirical model is proposed that uses: (1) a specific set of decadal, multidecadal, secular and millennial astronomic harmonics to simulate the observed climatic oscillations; (2) a 0.45 attenuation of the GCM ensemble mean simulations to model the anthropogenic and volcano forcing effects. The proposed empirical model outperforms the GCMs by better hindcasting the observed 1850-2012 climatic patterns. It is found that: (1) about 50- 60% of the warming observed since 1850 and since 1970 was induced by natural oscillations likely resulting from harmonic astronomical forcings that are not yet included in the GCMs; (2) a 2000-2040 approximately steady projected temperature; (3) a 2000-2100 projected warming ranging between 0.3 oC and 1.6 oC , which is significantly lower than the IPCC GCM ensemble mean projected warming of 1.1 oC to 4.1 oC ; (4) an equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling centered in 1.35 oC and varying between 0.9 oC and 2.0 oC.



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Impact of Global Warming and Rising C02 on Methane Emissions from Natural Vegetation Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Thursday, 11 July 2013 21:55

What impact do global warming, the ongoing rise in the air's carbon dioxide (CO2) content and a number of other contemporary environmental trends have on the atmosphere's methane (CH4) concentration? The implications of this question are substantial, in light of the fact that methane is a more powerful greenhouse gas, molecule for molecule, than is carbon dioxide. We here consider this question as it applies to methane emissions associated with natural vegetation.



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Evidence of Medieval Warm Period in Russia Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Friday, 28 June 2013 10:01

The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) was a global climatic anomaly that encompassed a few centuries on either side of AD 1000, when temperatures in many parts of the world were even warmer than they are currently. The degree of warmth and associated changes in precipitation, however, varied from region to region and from time to time; and, therefore, the MWP was manifest differently in different parts of the world. How it behaved in Russia is the subject of this Summary.



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Mr. President, It's Not "Carbon Pollution" It's the "Elixir of Life!" Print E-mail
Written by Dr. Craig Idso   
Friday, 28 June 2013 09:51

On June 25th, President Obama unveiled his plan to reduce what he refers to as "carbon pollution" – the emission of gaseous carbon dioxide into the air that primarily results from the burning of fossil fuels. In discussing the rationale for his plan, the President claims that carbon dioxide, or CO2, "causes climate change and threatens public health" and that "cutting carbon pollution will help keep our air and water clean and protect our kids." Unfortunately, President Obama's statements could not be further from the truth. Far from being a "pollutant," carbon dioxide is the Elixir of Life.



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Pacific Ocean Hurricane's and Global Warming Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Wednesday, 26 June 2013 08:05

Have hurricanes of the Pacific Ocean become more numerous and intense over the past century or so, in response to what climate alarmists typically describe as unprecedented global warming? To provide a firm foundation for answering this important question, this summary contains brief synopses of several real-world (as opposed to climate-model) studies that have appeared in the peer-reviewed scientific literature over the past few decades and have focused on this important question.



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Effects of C02 on Nitrous Oxide Emissions Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Thursday, 13 June 2013 18:58

In the words of Cantarel et al. (2011), nitrous oxide (N2O) is "an influential greenhouse gas," with a per-molecule global warming potential "approximately 300 times that of CO2 (IPCC, 2001)," and they say it "has shown linear increases of 0.2-0.3% per year over the last few decades, largely as a result of changes in agricultural practices and direct emissions from agricultural soils (IPCC, 2007)." As a result, understanding the factors that control the concentration of N2O the atmosphere, and how the sources and sinks of N2O vary with changes in climate and other factors, has long been an important concern among the scientific community. And in this Summary, therefore, we review important research that has been conducted on this topic, beginning with a discussion of studies examining how increases in atmospheric CO2 might modify the release of N2O into the atmosphere.



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Interactive Effects of C02 and Temperature on Woody Plant Growth Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Wednesday, 05 June 2013 18:46

As the atmosphere's CO2 concentration continues to rise, most trees will likely exhibit increased rates of photosynthesis and biomass production, which can subsequently lead to an increase in the amount of timber that will likely be required to meet the growing needs of earth's expanding human population. However, some individuals have predicted that CO2-induced global warming will counteract the growth-promoting effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment and actually reduce tree growth. Therefore, in order to determine if this widely-trumpeted claim has any validity, we turn to the peer-reviewed scientific literature to both report and summarize the results of several CO2-enrichment studies that were designed to reveal the concurrent effects of elevated CO2 and air temperature on the growth of trees and other woody plants.



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So Far Climate Scepticism is Right Print E-mail
Written by Christopher Monckton of Brenchly   
Thursday, 30 May 2013 16:20

So far, the climate sceptics are right, the cry-babies wrong.



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Climatic Effects of Black Carbon Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Wednesday, 22 May 2013 16:32

Writing as background for their work, Kaspari et al. (2011)[1] state that "black carbon (BC, the absorbing component of soot) produced by the incomplete combustion of biomass, coal and diesel fuels can significantly contribute to climate change by altering the Earth's radiative balance," noting that "BC is estimated to have 55% of the radiative forcing effect of CO2 (Ramanathan and Carmichael, 2008)," which is in line with the approximately 1 Wm-2 radiative forcing of black carbon reported by Hansen (2002)[2]. Nevertheless, and in spite of these facts, Kaspari et al. note that BC still remains "one of the largest sources of uncertainty in analyses of climate change."



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Spinning the Climate, The Intergovernmental Pannel on Climate Change (IPCC) Print E-mail
Written by Vincent Gray   
Monday, 20 May 2013 20:38

The IPCC is claimed by some to have provided evidence that the earth’s climate is harmed by changes in the atmospheric concentrations. of greenhouse gases. These claims are false. This report explains how dubious observations and some genuine science has been distorted and “spun” to support a global campaign to limit human emissions of certain greenhouse gases which has no scientific basis and no proven capacity to forecast future climate.



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Interactive Effects of Temperature and Enhanced C02 on Agricultural Crops Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Monday, 20 May 2013 20:17

As the air's CO2 content rises, most plants exhibit increased rates of photosynthesis and biomass production (see our Plant Growth Database[1]), which should enhance the amount of food, fiber and timber production that can be utilized to feed, clothe and shelter earth's expanding human population. However, some individuals have suggested that the growth-promoting effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment may be largely negated by the global warming that is predicted to occur in the near future by a number of state-of-the-art climate models, which outcome could compromise our ability to sustain a greater human population without increasing arable land acreage. Thus, we turn to the scientific literature to see if plants will - or will not - continue to exhibit CO2-induced growth increases under conditions of predicted future warming, which we do here by reviewing what has been learned about the photosynthetic and growth responses of CO2-enriched agricultural crops grown at both current and projected future growing-season temperatures.



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Atmospheric Methane Concentrations Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Saturday, 11 May 2013 13:35

Atmospheric methane's contribution to anthropogenic climate forcing is estimated to be about half that of CO2 when both direct and indirect components to its forcing are summed (see Figure 1, below); and nearly all models project atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations will increase for at least the next 3 decades, with many of the scenarios assuming a much larger increase throughout the 21st century. A quick fact-check, however, reveals that observations lie far below the model projections, as shown in each of the four prior Assessment Reports of the IPCC. So what has caused the IPCC to get things so wrong?



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Solar Influence on Temperatures in Europe Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Wednesday, 08 May 2013 12:39

We begin this review of the Sun's influence on European temperatures with the study of Holzhauser et al. (2005)[1], who presented high-resolution records of variations in glacier size in the Swiss Alps together with lake-level fluctuations in the Jura mountains, the northern French Pre-Alps, and the Swiss Plateau in developing a 3,500-year climate history of west-central Europe, starting with an in-depth analysis of the Great Aletsch glacier, which is the largest of all glaciers located in the European Alps.



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Solar Influence on Climate: Cosmic Rays Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Wednesday, 08 May 2013 12:33

The study of extraterrestrial climatic forcing factors is primarily a study of phenomena related to the Sun. Historically, this field of inquiry began with the work of Milankovitch (1920, 1941), who linked the cyclical glaciations of the past million years to the receipt of solar radiation at the surface of the Earth as modulated by variations in Earth's orbit and rotational characteristics. Subsequent investigations implicated a number of other solar phenomena that operate on both shorter and longer timescales; and this summary reviews the findings of the subset of those studies that involve galactic cosmic rays (GCRs).



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Request for Correction of Serious Inaccuracy Print E-mail
Written by Christopher Monckton of Brenchly   
Tuesday, 07 May 2013 16:37

As an Expert Reviewer for the Fifth Assessment Report, 2013, and in accordance with the IPCC Protocol for Addressing Possible Errors in IPCC Assessment Reports, I am writing to report a serious inaccuracy in the contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report, 2007. As a result of the inaccuracy, one of the report’s central conclusions was inappropriately drawn. The inaccuracy could have been avoided in the context of the information available at the time the report was written. It does not reflect new knowledge, scientific information, additional sources or a mere difference of opinion. I request that the inaccuracy be corrected and the correction published in the Errata for Working Group I’s contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report. No such correction currently appears in the Errata.



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Cook "The Books" is Wrong to Slam Roy Spencer Print E-mail
Written by Christopher Monckton of Brenchly   
Tuesday, 07 May 2013 16:29

Anyone who has met Roy Spencer knows him to be a careful, thoughtful, unpolemical scientist of formidable skill and knowledge. With John Christy he presents the monthly real-world data from the microwave sounding unit satellites that provide the least inaccurate global temperature record we have.

The satellites reveal the inconvenient truth that there has been no global warming for approaching two decades.



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Is C02 Mitigation Cost-Effective? Print E-mail
Written by Christopher Monckton of Brenchly   
Friday, 03 May 2013 15:32

This summary updates Monckton of Brenchley (2013), read at the World Federation of Scientists’ 2012 Seminars on Planetary Emergencies. The paper applied inter-temporal investment appraisal to mainstream IPCC climatology by comparing the cost of Australia’s 10-year CO2 tax (Parliament of Australia, 2011) with the benefit in the cost of warming-related damage the tax might avoid.



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Solar Influence on Global Temperature Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Wednesday, 24 April 2013 18:15

The claim that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have been responsible for the warming detected in the twentieth century is based on what Loehle (2004)[1] calls "the standard assumption in climate research, including the IPCC reports," that "over a century time interval there is not likely to be any recognizable trend to global temperatures (Risbey et al., 2000), and thus the null model for climate signal detection is a flat temperature trend with some autocorrelated noise," so that "any warming trends in excess of that expected from normal climatic variability are then assumed to be due to anthropogenic effects." If, however, there are significant underlying climate trends or cycles-or both-either known or unknown, that assumption is clearly invalid.



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Evidence of a Medieval Warm Period in Antarctica Print E-mail
Written by Staff   
Wednesday, 10 April 2013 19:48

Was there a Medieval Warm Period somewhere in the world in addition to the area surrounding the North Atlantic Ocean, where its occurrence is uncontested? This question is of utmost importance to the ongoing global warming debate, for if the Medieval Warm Period is found to have been a global climatic phenomenon, and if the locations where it occurred were as warm in medieval times as they are currently, there is no need to consider the temperature increase of the past century as anything other than the natural progression of the persistent millennial-scale oscillation of climate that regularly brings the earth several-hundred-year periods of modestly higher and lower temperatures that are totally independent of variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Consequently, we here review the findings of several studies that have found evidence for the Medieval Warm Period in a region that is as far away from lands bordering on the North Atlantic Ocean as one could possibly get, i.e., Antarctica.



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Analysis of US and State-by-State Carbon Dioxide Emissions & Potential "Savings" in Future Global Temperature & Global Sea Level Rise Print E-mail
Written by Paul Knappenberger   
Wednesday, 10 April 2013 00:00

Using assumptions based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports*, if the U.S. as a whole stopped emitting all carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions immediately, the ultimate impact on projected global temperature rise would be a reduction, or a “savings,” of approximately 0.08°C by the year 2050 and 0.17°C by the year 2100—amounts that are, for all intents and purposes, negligible.



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