Dr Kerry Emanuel of MIT caused a storm recently, when he said in a Mother Jones video that, as a Republican scientist, he is almost ashamed to be an American, because not all Republican candidates have embraced Global Warming. An LA Times Op-Ed from January 5th 2012, portrayed him as the conservative scientist out to save the world.

In February last year, Dr Emanuel was playing the same “Republican scientist who believes in global warming” message in a radio interview for NPR. He brought in the usual mantras about the tobacco industry and a campaign of disinformation funded by vested interests, but failed to mention his own vested interest in the disaster insurance business.

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Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack Volume 1: Executive Report 2004.

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This paper assesses EPA’s rule setting standards for motor vehicle greenhouse gas emissions.

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According to the EMP Commission, within 12 months of an EMP event between two thirds to 90% of the U.S. population will be dead.

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We compare the performance of a recently proposed empirical climate model based on astronomical harmonics against all CMIP3 available general circulation climate models (GCM) used by the IPCC (2007) to interpret the 20th century global surface temperature. The proposed astronomical empirical climate model assumes that the climate is resonating with, or synchronized to a set of natural harmonics that, in previous works (Scafetta, 2010b, 2011b), have been associated to the solar system planetary motion, which is mostly determined by Jupiter and Saturn. We show that the GCMs fail to reproduce the major decadal and multidecadal oscillations found in the global surface temperature record from 1850 to 2011. On the contrary, the proposed harmonic model (which herein uses cycles with 9.1, 10–10.5, 20–21, 60–62 year periods) is found to well reconstruct the observed climate oscillations from 1850 to 2011, and it is shown to be able to forecast the climate oscillations from 1950 to 2011 using the data covering the period 1850–1950, and vice versa. The 9.1-year cycle is shown to be likely related to a decadal Soli/Lunar tidal oscillation, while the 10–10.5, 20–21 and 60–62 year cycles are synchronous to solar and heliospheric planetary oscillations. We show that the IPCC GCM’s claim that all warming observed from 1970 to 2000 has been anthropogenically induced is erroneous because of the GCM failure in reconstructing the quasi 20-year and 60-year climatic cycles. Finally, we show how the presence of these large natural cycles can be used to correct the IPCC projected anthropogenic warming trend for the 21st century. By combining this corrected trend with the natural cycles, we show that the temperature may not significantly increase during the next 30 years mostly because of the negative phase of the 60-year cycle. If multisecular natural cycles (which according to some authors have significantly contributed to the observed 1700–2010 warming and may contribute to an additional natural cooling by 2100) are ignored, the same IPCC projected anthropogenic emissions would imply a global warming by about 0.3–1.2 C by 2100, contrary to the IPCC 1.0–3.6 C projected warming. The results of this paper reinforce previous claims that the relevant physical mechanisms that explain the detected climatic cycles are still missing in the current GCMs and that climate variations at the multidecadal scales are astronomically induced and, in first approximation, can be forecast.

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Differences in pressure, or pressure gradients, cause wind. So, how does wind respond to rising temperatures? Several studies have addressed different aspects of this question in recent years.

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Computer simulations of global climate change have long indicated the world’s polar regions should show the first and severest signs of CO2-induced global warming. If the models are correct, these signs should be especially evident since the second half of the 20th century, when approximately two-thirds of the modern-era rise in atmospheric CO2 occurred and Earth’s temperature supposedly rose, in the view of most climate alarmists, to a level unprecedented in the entire past millennium. In this review, we examine historic trends in Arctic glacier behavior to determine the credibility of current climate models with respect to their polar predictions.

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Have tropical storms and hurricanes of the Atlantic Ocean become more numerous over the past century, in response to what climate alarmists describe as unprecedented global warming?

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How does the frequency of occurrence of Atlantic basin hurricanes respond to increases in temperature?

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Global food security is one of the most pressing societal issues of our time. Based on food production databases assembled and maintained by the United Nations, I have identified the specific crops that supply 95% of the food needs of the world, six large regions into which the world may be divided, twenty sub-regions, and twenty-five individual countries of particular interest. I have then projected trends in the productivities of these key crops for each of these geographical areas to the year 2050, finding that expected advances in agricultural technology and expertise will significantly increase the food production potential of many countries and regions, but discovering that these advances will not increase production fast enough to meet the demands of the planet’s even faster-growing human population.

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Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack.

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Many claim sea level is rising because of global warming and point to changes along the Gulf of Mexico coast. Sea level has risen since the end of the last Ice Age (Figure 1), but it has slowed dramatically in the last few hundred years. However, shoreline change is not just a function of water level change. Misdirection using fear and misinformation divert from and hinder human ability to adapt to an ever changing world.

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Global warming is an objective fact with great uncertainty in the magnitude of the temperature increase. Worldwide observational data indicate that the global average temperature has increased during the last century. In addition to rising temperatures, evidence of global warming also includes the global increase in the average sea level, widespread snow and ice melt, and changes in plant phenology. However, this still has large uncertainties in the magnitude of the global temperature rise.

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A collection of papers from Science and Public Policy Institute.

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ABSTRACT

The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report Four (AR-4) of 2007, concerning the influence of rising levels of CO2 on global increases of tropical cyclone (TC) activity is inaccurate and a disgrace to the scientific community. The public expected there would be rigor and objectivity coming out of such an important document which shared a Nobel Peace Prize with former US Vice President Al Gore. The summary of TC activity of this report was based on discredited peer-reviewed papers whose lack of authenticity was known before the report was released. A select cadre of global warming advocates (with little TC knowledge or experience) bent their objectivity to drive this report toward a desired (but faulty) conclusion that global TC activity was increasing in frequency and intensity. They further implied that a large portion of this alleged TC increase could likely be attributed to rising levels of CO2.

This paper brings forth observational and theoretical evidence to show that rising levels of CO2 have not had any observable association with increases in global tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. In fact, levels have been trending downward over the last 20 years. This paper discusses why we should not be able to measure any potential future CO2-TC association for many decades, and if any such potential future relationship should ever be able to be isolated, it would be quite small. It also dissects the many observational and theoretical errors of the IPCC-AR4 concerning its reported past and likely future increases of global TC activity.

This paper extends the list of IPCC-AR4’s many questionable conclusions and misrepresentation beyond those that have already been earlier pointed out such as the Himalayas becoming snow-free by 2035, the Arctic Ocean possibly becoming ice-free in coming decades, and the possible coming Amazon rainforest destruction. The issuance of these erroneous IPCC reports does much damage. They should be terminated.

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Two professors of sociology think they can explain why “Climate Deniers” are winning. But Riley E. Dunlap and Aaron M. McCright start from the wrong assumption and miss the bleeding obvious: the theory was wrong, the evidence has changed, and thousands of volunteers have exposed it.

The real question sociologists will be studying for years to come is: how was an exaggerated scare, based on so little evidence, poor reasoning and petty namecalling, kept alive for two whole decades?

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By an astonishing 15 distinct methods, Christopher Monckton of Brenchley demonstrates in his latest SPPI technical paper that the warming we can expect in response to the doubling of CO2 concentration that is expected this century will not be 6 F, the IPCC’s central estimate, but only around 2 F.

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Summary for Policy Makers

In this report we provide a review of Louisiana’s climate history and show that there is no observational evidence of unusual long-term climate changes taking place that could be linked to anthropogenic “global warming”—despite the frequent prognostications of gloom and doom.

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The first six months of 2011 are now in the books. Heat waves are currently in the headlines, but how does the national average temperature compare to other years and ‘normal’? And what does the first half of the year portend for the year as a whole?

The indication is that 2011 will mark the continued return of U.S. national temperatures to conditions much closer to the 20th century mean, down from the unusually elevated temperatures that characterized the 1998–2010 period.

If this proves to be the case, it strongly suggests that the unusually warm decade from 1998–2007, was just that–unusual–and does not best represent the expected trend or the climate state of the U.S. for the next several decades to come.

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The focus of this paper is early (historic) weather events. The chronology cuts off at the year 1900 A.D.

Recent weather events are fairly well documented. Excluded from the chronology are events caused by man (such as the 1642 Kaifeng flood which killed 300,000 Chinese, and the 1938 Yellow River flood that caused 500,000 Japanese/Chinese fatalities) and events caused by other non-weather related catastrophes (such as tsunami waves caused by earthquakes/volcanoes). The chronology does include major volcano induced global cooling events.

This chronology begins at 0 A.D. A few of the source chronologies actual date some weather events as far back as 1,800 B.C. I have left these out of this chronology because the further one goes back in time, the less certain the dates. This is because these chronologies use calendars (such as AM – Anno Mundi), and the events in many cases were derived using a variety of ancient calendars systems. And date uncertainty is introduced in calendar conversion. This is also due to the inexactness within the narrative descriptions.

Why is a chronological listing of weather events of value? If one wishes to peer into the future, then a firm grasp of the past events is a key to that gateway. This is intrinsically true for the scientific underpinnings of weather and climate.

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