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Written by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
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Tuesday, 15 January 2013 09:32 |
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The Science and Public Policy Institute has been asked to comment on the apparent inconsistency between the news that July 2012 was the warmest July since 1895 in the contiguous United States and the news that the Meteorological Office in the UK has cut its global warming forecast for the coming years. The present paper is a response to that interesting question.
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Last Updated on Tuesday, 15 January 2013 09:40 |
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Read more... [No Global Warming for Almost Two Decades]
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Written by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
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Thursday, 03 January 2013 00:00 |
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Expert Reviewer’s Comments on the Second-Order Draft of the Contribution of the Climate Science Working Group (WG1) to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5, 2013) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
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Last Updated on Thursday, 03 January 2013 14:04 |
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Read more... [Expert Reviewer Comments on Second-Order Draft of WG1's Contribution to AR5]
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Written by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
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Monday, 15 October 2012 13:27 |
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Your Newsnight segment on Arctic sea ice (BBC2 TV, 8 September 2012) featured a “scientist” who said ice loss since a high point in 1979 would cut the Earth’s albedo and, by this feedback, cause warming equivalent to 20 years’ global CO2 emissions.
On the IPCC’s current central climate-sensitivity estimates, 20 years’ CO2 emissions would only warm the Earth by ¼ C°. But since the IPCC’s first projections in 1990, temperature has risen only half as fast as predicted: so make that just ? C°.
The glaciologist the programme relied on got the math wrong. Ignoring the growth in Antarctic sea ice since 1979, as the programme unwisely did, the loss of 2.5 million km2 of Arctic sea ice (measured as the linear trend on the NSIDC data) will warm the Earth by only 1/20 C°, and only then if the ice loss is permanent. Halve that to allow for the compensating effect of record Antarctic sea-ice growth: say, 1/40 C° of global warming, equivalent to just 2 years’ CO2 emissions on the IPCC’s current projections, not 20 years’ emissions. The math is below.
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Read more... [Sea Ice: An Open Letter to Jeremy Paxman of the BBC]
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Written by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
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Tuesday, 04 September 2012 09:59 |
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Global CO2 emissions per unit annual increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration show no significant trend over the 49 year timescale of the available data (1960-2008). The mean emissions/concentration-growth ratio over the period was 15.5 Gte CO2 ppmv–1. Current central estimates are that CO2 concentration will rise by 345 ppmv over the 21st century, during which CO2-driven warming is projected to be 1.56 K, suggesting that, on a centennial scale, CO2 concentration must rise by 223 ppmv, or 3450 Gte CO2, to cause 1 K of warming. Since total global CO2 emissions from 1960-2008 were 975 Gte CO2, the CO2-driven contribution to the 0.66 K measured global warming over the period was 0.28 K. However, on currently-accepted central estimates, the CO2-driven warming over the period was almost two-thirds higher, at 0.46 K. The ratio of CO2 emissions to concentration change – useful as an independent constraint on climate sensitivity – suggests that CO2-driven warming in the 21st century may be little more than 1 K. In the short term and perhaps also in the long, climate sensitivity may lie below the values found in the general-circulation models.
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Last Updated on Tuesday, 04 September 2012 10:10 |
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Read more... [An Independent Constraint on Climate Sensitivity]
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Written by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
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Monday, 27 August 2012 15:49 |
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This note, prepared for distinguished scientific delegates at the 2012 annual seminars on planetary emergencies of the World Federation of Scientists, demonstrates the application of a much-simplified method of climate-mitigation investment appraisal to the recently-introduced Australian carbon dioxide tax. For the first time, mainstream climatological and economic-appraisal approaches are combined in a simple but robust appraisal method. The $130 bn cost of the Australian carbon tax (Parliament of Australia, 2011) over the intended ten-year term is compared with its benefit in the cost of warming-related damage avoided by successful implementation and the consequent intended 5% cut in Australia’s emissions. A zero inter-temporal discount rate is assumed. The minimum market rate would be 5% (Murphy et al., 2008). The calculations are made explicit.
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Last Updated on Monday, 27 August 2012 16:15 |
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Read more... [Is C02 Mitigation Cost-Effective?]
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